Red should choose the 12 sided white.

If Red chooses the wished for line straight ahead the 12 sided white has got 3x8, 2x9 and 1x10 as possibilities to play the ball onto the fairway behind the bunker. This means 6 of 12 possibilities which is a probability of 1:2. Of course there is a risk of playing the ball into the water. This risk with a probability of just 1:6 should be by put up by Red.

The 6 sided green is not to be used since it is only allowed to be played in the bunker (sandwedge).

By using the 12 sided green it is for granted that the ball flies over the bunker. However, there is a probability of 7:12 that the ball flies into the water (2x11, 2x12, 2x13 and 1x14). In contrast to the 12 sided white the direction die is to be played additionally and as Red has no chip left, there is no chance for correcting.

This is also the problem of playing the 11 sided green. If the ball flies to the left (Hook) and lands onto the rough, there will be an additional stroke necessary to get the ball in front of the water.